Brecon Hill was well beaten for us last weekend, but in hindsight I think it wasn’t as poor a run as it looked. He rallied well in the home straight to get back up for 4th and I think he might finished closer if he had been ridden a lot more aggressively from the start. He was bang there three out, but he was badly outpaced around the home turn. Maybe a step up in trip will suit and I think he could still have a bit of progression left in him.
|Affair D’Honneur looks very well handicapped.|
There is a half decent card at Newbury on Friday and I can’t resist having a small each way flutter on Affaire D’Honneur. This 8yo son of Shirocco was promising in his younger days, but he must have been hard to keep right. He has had just 19 starts under rules, and he spent a long time in the wilderness since his fine 4th here in the Betfair Hurdle off 132 for Harry Whittington in 2016.
He won his next start by 8L at Fontwell in a poor Novice Hurdle (19f soft) but afterwards his form tailed off. Affair D’Honneur ran only nine times between then and his next good run, a 2nd in a selling hurdle at Stratford (19f gd) when trained by Kevin Frost. He got 6lb and was beaten 11L by Vive Le Roi who was racing off a mark of 100. Two starts later, Vive La Roi won a valuable Class 2 hurdle at Newbury off a mark of 128.
He stayed on well to grab 2nd that day, and shaped as though stepping up in trip might suit. It surely did, and Affaire D’Honneur finally got his head back in front at Worcester (23f gd). That was another seller, but again the form looks rock solid as the 2nd and 3rd both won their next two starts. He has since moved to the Tony Carroll yard and the tongue tie on for his last two runs was discarded on his stable debut at Leicester over an inadequate 15.5f.
Harry Bannister rides and his record for Carroll is excellent. He has had 23 rides for the trainer with 7 wins and 6 places for a level stakes profit of +£28.00 to a £1 stake. The drop in trip was never likely to suit last time, and with the tongue tie restored and the step back up in trip sure to suit, Affaire D’Honneur looks well worth chancing each way at 50/1 (888sport) off bottom weight and a mark of just 102.
STEVOS SELECTION: 3.55 NEWBURY AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR E/W @ 50/1